Northern Waters: High Tide

Within this product is a unique open-source DIA perspective on intelligence production. At the unclassified level, DIA teaches analysts to think multiple layers deep. Its training and internal doctrinal materials emphasize first- through third-order effects, with multiple layers of depth built into the analysis. Usually, one can expect an intelligence product to reach approximately three layers deep, or the level of a common production manager.

However, in the AI world, AGI may only ever be capable of independently producing three layers of depth. ChatGPT—potentially Astra-6—could not even correctly identify the first layer. Only after numerous guided prompts did a cutting-edge American AI model begin to broach layer three. In due time, probably within my children's lifetime, AI will likely be capable of completing layer three through zero-shot learning. This is Sigcryptal's anticipated threshold for the capability of a common military intelligence analyst.

It is possible that, with persistent access to sensitive national-level databases, AGI could reach layer five. Yet even that would not represent purely independent AI capability; it would, in part, be piggybacking on the work, judgments, and assessments of human analysts already embedded within those databases. In the end, intelligence work remains one of the few professions that Sigcryptal anticipates could never be fully transferred to a computer.